As time goes on, the outbreak of coronavirus started to erode economic activities in real numbers. In this report, we turn to high-frequency travel and migration data, at national level and for selected cities, to shed some light on how many people have returned. We find that return trip during the post-CNY window (25 Jan-8 Feb) has decreased roughly to a magnitude of 60-80% compared to the same period last year. This finding conveys warnings. 1) Work suspension could be more severe than expected. We estimate that nationwide, only 20 - 40% of production capacity is able to resume by this week; 2) Major cities will continue to be exposed to coronavirus risks because more people are returning in upcoming days. It could be a long and onerous fight against the 2019-nCoV.
- How many people have returned? Finding #1: Nationwide travel declined 82% YoY after the CNY, measured by passengers carried. By means of transportation, railway dropped 79% while civil aviation decreased 70%. Before the CNY, travel demand seemed normal, with passengers carried increasing 2% YoY pooling all means of transportation.
- Finding #2: At city level, migration inflow decreased 68% YoY after the CNY. We conduct analysis on 10 selected cities that are migration-intensive and economically important, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Dongguan, Suzhou, Foshan, Changsha and Chongqing. On average, migration inflow declined 68% YoY after the CNY. During the past weekend, however, migration inflow picked up meaningfully and DoD growth on 8 Feb and 9 Feb exceeded 20% for Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan and Changsha.
- What does travel data inform us? 1) Return peak has not come yet for most cities. Compared to previous years, we estimate that 60-80% of the return trips have been delayed; 2) Work suspension may extend beyond this week, weighing on economic activities. We estimate that only 20% to 40% of the production could resume by this week. Stay cautious when analyzing production activities which rely on a large volume of migrant employees; 3) Fighting the coronavirus is onerous as cities are expecting larger inflows of population in the future. It is very necessary to adopt flexible back-to-work schedule to avoid contagion.
- A few more thoughts. For investors, hold reverence for both markets and life. Better realize that the coronavirus is a tough fight in the short term while thinking about what deserves efforts in the long run. To the extent that the crisis will trigger reform and reflection on the governance system and arouse public health awareness per se, there is no reason to be pessimistic. For all individuals experiencing the outbreak, stay safe, healthy and positive as much as we can. Be prepared to embrace a productive and all-round recovery.
