【Sector Research】China Healthcare Sector – The race for a COVID-19 vaccine

• Vaccines could be the final solution for COVID-19 pandemic. As of 16 May, cumulative COVID-19 cases surpassed 4.6mn in overseas countries while cumulative mortality rate has slightly declined to 6.7% over the past week. The outbreak in major developed countries in western Europe and North America have been gradually controlled. However, many developing countries are at early stage of the outbreak. We highlight that Brazil, Russia and India recorded surging infected cases and may become the next center of coronavirus pandemic.

 

• Outbreak to last longer than expected. Worryingly, for overseas countries that have passed the peak of the outbreak, new cases have been declining at a very slow speed. This implies that the outbreak will last longer than we have expected. It has been consensual that the virus will be with human for quite a long time. Hence, vaccines may be final solution to tackle the outbreak. Although several vaccines have started clinical trials in China and overseas, we may still need to wait for approximately at least six months for vaccines to become available for emergency use. According to WHO, there were at least 118 potential COVID-19 vaccines in the works around the world but only eight were in clinical trials. Only two vaccine candidates have entered into phase 2 trials, both were developed by Chinese companies, including Ad5-nCov developed by CanSino (6185 HK, NR) and another candidate developed by CNBG.

 

• Limited data have been revealed on COVID-19 vaccine candidates. On 18 May (EST), Moderna (MRNA US, NR) released Phase I interim data for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273. Based on the released data, all vaccinated subjects had immune response, and eight subjects have developed neutralizing antibodies. In addition, two other COVID-19 vaccine candidates also published preclinical animal data recently, including ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 from The Jenner Institute in the University of Oxford and PiCoVacc from Sinovac Biotech (SVA US, NR) based in China. Both ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and PiCoVacc showed immunogenicity in rhesus macaques (恒河猴).

 

• Major types of COVID-19 vaccine. There are majorly five types of COVID-19 vaccines by classification of development technologies, including inactivated vaccine, recombinant protein vaccine, viral vector-based vaccine, RNA vaccine, and DNA vaccine (See Figure 1). Moderna’s mRNA-1273 is an RNA vaccine. Cansino’s Ad5-nCov and Oxford’s ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 are viral vector-based vaccine while Sinovac’s PiCoVacc is an inactivated vaccine.

 

• Development of vaccines against COVID-19 is still in an early stage at this point and limited data were disclosed. Some vaccine candidates in overseas countries were pushed into clinical phase even without supportive animal data. However, we think some leading candidates might benefit from significant first mover advantage in the future, including Ad5-nCov from Cansino (6185 HK, NR).